UPDATE (19/02/2015 17:36):
Rinne's former coach agrees! Hear what Barry Trotz had to say about this year's NHL MVP race.
With the All Star break done, the hockey world is starting to focus on races. No, I’m not talking about Alec Martinez having fun on Cinqo de Mayo or the recent mess with Winnipeg and Evander Kane (although here’s an article that I really recommend). Races in the standings are taking shape and pushing teams to decide who will do what before the trade deadline. Teams racing to the top are looking for consistent play and pieces they can add to further their push for the Cup. And races in the opposite direction will determine who gets the best odds at the Connor McDavid-Jack Eichel sweepstakes (someone tell the Leafs to stop losing, please). Within these playoff races, we can also focus on individual races, say for NHL awards. One race that will be great to follow for the rest of the season is the one for the Hart Trophy. No one is running away with it just yet, but two names that are getting thrown around a lot as early favourites for the MVP award are Pekka Rinne and Carey Price. These guys are top-2 in the league for Wins, GAA and Save% (with over 20 games played, sorry Calvin Pickard) and have incredibly similar numbers. Recently, they’ve both been named as Stars of the Week, and have gone back and forth with dazzling performances. Price turns in a shutout one night then Rinne makes 42 saves, including this sequence against San Jose. So how do we differentiate between them? How can we say that one has more value to his team than the other? Well let’s look at some game situations and see if either player stands out. Noting that Montreal and Nashville play different styles of hockey, maybe one is relying on their goalie more heavily to get the win, thus making him more valuable.
Starting with Price (just as the Habs have done 45 times this season); he has 32 wins, a 1.93 GAA and a .935 Save%. Fourteen (almost half) of his wins have come with his team being outshot, and seven of those wins happened when they were outshot by 10 or more. Rinne, on the other hand, has 34 wins, a 1.94 GAA and a .932 Save%. Thirteen of his wins have come in games where his team was outshot, but only three of them were in games when outshot by 10 or more. So not only has Price earned more wins on busier nights, but they’ve been much busier. Montreal has been outshot 22 times with him in nets. In 12 of those games, they were outshot by 10 or more and in total their shot differential in outshot-games is a whopping -228. Nashville, in comparison, has done a much better job of not leaning as heavily on Rinne. They’ve been outshot 18 times during his starts, but only 3 of those games were by 10 or more. And their shot differential in games where they’ve been outshot is a less staggering -99. For these numbers to make a little more sense, we can say that when outshot, Nashville averages a shot differential of a manageable -5.5 shots/game. However, Montreal (who has been outshot more often), averages a higher shot differential of -10.4 shots/game when relying on Price. That’s just about double the shots and in spite of the heavier load, Price’s numbers are just as impressive as Rinne’s.
Rinne's former coach agrees! Hear what Barry Trotz had to say about this year's NHL MVP race.
With the All Star break done, the hockey world is starting to focus on races. No, I’m not talking about Alec Martinez having fun on Cinqo de Mayo or the recent mess with Winnipeg and Evander Kane (although here’s an article that I really recommend). Races in the standings are taking shape and pushing teams to decide who will do what before the trade deadline. Teams racing to the top are looking for consistent play and pieces they can add to further their push for the Cup. And races in the opposite direction will determine who gets the best odds at the Connor McDavid-Jack Eichel sweepstakes (someone tell the Leafs to stop losing, please). Within these playoff races, we can also focus on individual races, say for NHL awards. One race that will be great to follow for the rest of the season is the one for the Hart Trophy. No one is running away with it just yet, but two names that are getting thrown around a lot as early favourites for the MVP award are Pekka Rinne and Carey Price. These guys are top-2 in the league for Wins, GAA and Save% (with over 20 games played, sorry Calvin Pickard) and have incredibly similar numbers. Recently, they’ve both been named as Stars of the Week, and have gone back and forth with dazzling performances. Price turns in a shutout one night then Rinne makes 42 saves, including this sequence against San Jose. So how do we differentiate between them? How can we say that one has more value to his team than the other? Well let’s look at some game situations and see if either player stands out. Noting that Montreal and Nashville play different styles of hockey, maybe one is relying on their goalie more heavily to get the win, thus making him more valuable.
Starting with Price (just as the Habs have done 45 times this season); he has 32 wins, a 1.93 GAA and a .935 Save%. Fourteen (almost half) of his wins have come with his team being outshot, and seven of those wins happened when they were outshot by 10 or more. Rinne, on the other hand, has 34 wins, a 1.94 GAA and a .932 Save%. Thirteen of his wins have come in games where his team was outshot, but only three of them were in games when outshot by 10 or more. So not only has Price earned more wins on busier nights, but they’ve been much busier. Montreal has been outshot 22 times with him in nets. In 12 of those games, they were outshot by 10 or more and in total their shot differential in outshot-games is a whopping -228. Nashville, in comparison, has done a much better job of not leaning as heavily on Rinne. They’ve been outshot 18 times during his starts, but only 3 of those games were by 10 or more. And their shot differential in games where they’ve been outshot is a less staggering -99. For these numbers to make a little more sense, we can say that when outshot, Nashville averages a shot differential of a manageable -5.5 shots/game. However, Montreal (who has been outshot more often), averages a higher shot differential of -10.4 shots/game when relying on Price. That’s just about double the shots and in spite of the heavier load, Price’s numbers are just as impressive as Rinne’s.
*OTL/SOL = Overtime or Shootout Loss
Next, we can look at Goals For in these outshot-situations to see if there’s been a difference in the goal support these two have received. In the 22 games where Price faced more shots than the opposing goalie, Montreal scored 56 goals. While that isn’t too bad of an average, eight of those goals happened in the last 2 minutes of regulation or during overtime. To be able to focus on goals that alleviate the pressure of an opposing team's attack, we will ignore these eight as they happened too late in the game to provide much relief. Based on this, we can say that Price’s adjusted goal support was 48 goals, an average of 2.18 per game. By comparison, Rinne’s Predators scored 54 goals in the 18 games in which they were outshot. Three of these were during the last 2 minutes or overtime and so with an adjusted total of 51, Rinne’s average goal support is 2.83 goals/game. This makes a difference of 0.65 goals/game in Rinne’s favour. While that isn’t a seemingly large difference, put over 22 games that would be an extra 14 goals in support of Price that he didn’t receive. To go one step further, in 11 of the games where the Canadiens were outshot by 10 or more, they managed a paltry 17 goals (adjusted). This is an average of 1.55 goals per game. To put this into perspective, that’s 0.20 goals/game lower than this year’s record breaking (for being terrible) Buffalo Sabres. So when the Habs are outshot by 10 or more, they’re scoring fewer goals than Buffalo has averaged all season and Price is still winning 58% of the time. That alone should have the Canadiens’ net-minder as the favourite for MVP, but we’ll dig even deeper and look at which teams these goalies have succeeded against.
Next, we can look at Goals For in these outshot-situations to see if there’s been a difference in the goal support these two have received. In the 22 games where Price faced more shots than the opposing goalie, Montreal scored 56 goals. While that isn’t too bad of an average, eight of those goals happened in the last 2 minutes of regulation or during overtime. To be able to focus on goals that alleviate the pressure of an opposing team's attack, we will ignore these eight as they happened too late in the game to provide much relief. Based on this, we can say that Price’s adjusted goal support was 48 goals, an average of 2.18 per game. By comparison, Rinne’s Predators scored 54 goals in the 18 games in which they were outshot. Three of these were during the last 2 minutes or overtime and so with an adjusted total of 51, Rinne’s average goal support is 2.83 goals/game. This makes a difference of 0.65 goals/game in Rinne’s favour. While that isn’t a seemingly large difference, put over 22 games that would be an extra 14 goals in support of Price that he didn’t receive. To go one step further, in 11 of the games where the Canadiens were outshot by 10 or more, they managed a paltry 17 goals (adjusted). This is an average of 1.55 goals per game. To put this into perspective, that’s 0.20 goals/game lower than this year’s record breaking (for being terrible) Buffalo Sabres. So when the Habs are outshot by 10 or more, they’re scoring fewer goals than Buffalo has averaged all season and Price is still winning 58% of the time. That alone should have the Canadiens’ net-minder as the favourite for MVP, but we’ll dig even deeper and look at which teams these goalies have succeeded against.
*The above graph has rankings based on the entire season, outshot or not
By looking at the current records of the teams these goalies have beaten while getting outshot, we can add one more point to the argument being made. In Price’s 14 outshot-but-won scenarios, the opposing teams have an average of 31 wins, or 68 points (good for a final playoff spot in either conference). Similarly, in Rinne’s 13 games with the same outshot-but-won outcome, the opposing teams have an average of 29 wins, or 65 points. Not too much of a difference there. However, if we only look at the games where Montreal or Nashville were outshot by 10 or more, we can see a clear trend. Rinne’s 3 outshot-but-won games have come against Edmonton, Minnesota and Arizona. None of these teams currently hold a playoff spot (although Minnesota isn’t too far back) and they have an average of 21 wins (or 51 points) to put them into New Jersey, Columbus or (gasp) Toronto territory. So yes, Rinne has bailed his team out with wins when they’ve been heavily outplayed, but he’s only done so against significantly weaker opposition. Price, in this respect, has been more valuable. All of the teams he’s beaten, while his Canadiens were outshot by 10 or more, are either in the playoffs or within reach of them (with Carolina as the sole exception). These teams still average 30 wins or 66 points and are obviously looking forward to being on the ice come April, not watching for a bingo ball with their logo on it.
To summarize, both Pekka Rinne and Carey Price have had outstanding seasons up to this point. The only reason we’re talking about them and the Hart Trophy in the same sentence is because of their stellar play. That being said, if we break down the games and compare the value that each goalie provides when his team needs him most, there’s a clear winner. Price’s Habs have been outshot more often, by a much larger margin, scored fewer goals to alleviate any opposing pressure and played worse against better competition, and still Price has kept them in and put them atop the Eastern Standings. While Rinne has done exceptionally well, his Preds have helped with better shot differentials per game, more goals, and counted on him most against weaker opposition. How this plays out the rest of the year is still to be decided, but if the voting took place today, there really is no question. It’s Carey over Pekka, point finale.
* All data accurate as of 17:30PM on Feb. 18, 2015 - from NHL.com
By looking at the current records of the teams these goalies have beaten while getting outshot, we can add one more point to the argument being made. In Price’s 14 outshot-but-won scenarios, the opposing teams have an average of 31 wins, or 68 points (good for a final playoff spot in either conference). Similarly, in Rinne’s 13 games with the same outshot-but-won outcome, the opposing teams have an average of 29 wins, or 65 points. Not too much of a difference there. However, if we only look at the games where Montreal or Nashville were outshot by 10 or more, we can see a clear trend. Rinne’s 3 outshot-but-won games have come against Edmonton, Minnesota and Arizona. None of these teams currently hold a playoff spot (although Minnesota isn’t too far back) and they have an average of 21 wins (or 51 points) to put them into New Jersey, Columbus or (gasp) Toronto territory. So yes, Rinne has bailed his team out with wins when they’ve been heavily outplayed, but he’s only done so against significantly weaker opposition. Price, in this respect, has been more valuable. All of the teams he’s beaten, while his Canadiens were outshot by 10 or more, are either in the playoffs or within reach of them (with Carolina as the sole exception). These teams still average 30 wins or 66 points and are obviously looking forward to being on the ice come April, not watching for a bingo ball with their logo on it.
To summarize, both Pekka Rinne and Carey Price have had outstanding seasons up to this point. The only reason we’re talking about them and the Hart Trophy in the same sentence is because of their stellar play. That being said, if we break down the games and compare the value that each goalie provides when his team needs him most, there’s a clear winner. Price’s Habs have been outshot more often, by a much larger margin, scored fewer goals to alleviate any opposing pressure and played worse against better competition, and still Price has kept them in and put them atop the Eastern Standings. While Rinne has done exceptionally well, his Preds have helped with better shot differentials per game, more goals, and counted on him most against weaker opposition. How this plays out the rest of the year is still to be decided, but if the voting took place today, there really is no question. It’s Carey over Pekka, point finale.
* All data accurate as of 17:30PM on Feb. 18, 2015 - from NHL.com